How useful are genomic data for predicting maladaptation to future climate?

Methods using genomic information to forecast potential population maladaptation to climate change or new environments are becoming increasingly common, yet the lack of model validation poses serious hurdles toward their incorporation into management and policy. Here, we compare the validation of maladaptation estimates derived from two methods-Gradient Forests (GFoffset) and the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA)-using exome capture pool-seq data from 35 to 39 populations across three conifer taxa: two Douglas-fir varieties and jack pine. We evaluate sensitivity of these algorithms to the source of input loci (markers selected from genotype-environment associations [GEA] or those selected at random). We validate these methods against 2- and 52-year growth and mortality measured in independent transplant experiments. Overall, we find that both methods often better predict transplant performance than climatic or geographic distances. We also find that GFoffset and RONA models are surprisingly not improved using GEA candidates. Even with promising validation results, variation in model projections to future climates makes it difficult to identify the most maladapted populations using either method. Our work advances understanding of the sensitivity and applicability of these approaches, and we discuss recommendations for their future use.

Moral submissiveness: social origin as a vulnerability for well-being on a warming planet.

In recent years, the emotional experience of climate change has been studied extensively from fields like psychology, theology, sociology, and philosophy. It is crucial to analyze these results for possible vulnerability with regard to well-being. While climate justice research raises awareness of the current (social) situation of the participants in relation to the experience of climate change, the research on climate emotions seems to overlook the participant's former social situation - their family of origin. Previous studies on injustice have shown however that it is precisely the way people were educated on emotion work that has a significant impact on their experiences and sense of control in the situation. Given the importance of this sense of control for mental well-being, I argue consequently that social origin is a vulnerability for well-being in the (emotional) experience of climate change, perpetuating climate injustice, based on this combination of studies from different epochs. Therefore, in the interest to protect well-being on a warming planet, it is crucial to raise awareness of the impact of social origin.

Geo-demographics and source of information as determinants of climate change consciousness among citizens in African countries.

Climate change constitutes one of the greatest threats to human health globally and there have been increasing interests in understanding the dynamics of climate change consciousness particularly in less industrialised countries of Africa. Research on cross-country, sub-regional and continent differences in climate change consciousness are rare especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, to complement the existing body of literature, this study was conducted on cross-national predictors of public climate change consciousness. Data from the Afrobarometer round 7 for thirty-four [34] African countries, collected between 2017 and 2020, were used to investigate the influence of geographical, socio-demographics, and source of information on public consciousness of climate change. Statistical analyses of t-test, ANOVA and multiple regression were conducted to test the formulated hypotheses. Results showed a low level of climate change consciousness (CCC) among participants. Radio news was the major source of information for the sampled African citizens. There were significant differences in the CCC of male and female as well as between urban and rural respondents. Significant differences were also found among the sub-regions, educational levels, age groups and occupations. Sources of information and demographic variables significantly influenced the level of CCC among participating citizens. Educational attainment was the single most potent predictor of climate change consciousness. The study recommends that African citizens need capacity building on climate change awareness and initiatives which would assist in mitigating the effects of climate change.

The behavior and welfare of neglected species: some examples from fish and mammals.

Animal welfare is the state of an animal's body and mind and the level to which its requirements are satisfied. Animal welfare is affected by human decisions and actions. Numerous decisions concerning animals are driven by human desires to enhance their own lives, and some of these decisions may be influenced by self-interest or a strong emphasis on economic factors. How to assess the welfare state of animals is a central issue in animal welfare science. Two critical questions can be used to address animal welfare: first, is the animal healthy, and second, does the animal have what it needs? Both of these questions can potentially be answered using the study of animal behavior. The development of behavioral methodologies is crucial for evaluating welfare in contexts where concern for animal welfare is often highest, such as on intensive modern farms and sites where working animals are used. Herein, we discuss animal welfare by focusing on some of its major concepts and explanations. Later, to illustrate key aspects of animal welfare, we chose to examine the information that is available for some 'neglected' livestock species, which are commercially important on a global basis and found in large numbers: buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis), camels (Camelus dromedarius), donkeys (Equus asinus), mules (Equus asinus × Equus caballus), and lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus). We chose these species because there are major ongoing concerns about their welfare, and more research is required to help solve the various problems. Overall, there are strong imbalances in terms of the species that are usually studied in terms of animal welfare research, and we call for greater attention to those that have traditionally been neglected.

Leaf nutrient traits of planted forests demonstrate a heightened sensitivity to environmental changes compared to natural forests.

Leaf nutrient content (nitrogen, phosphorus) and their stoichiometric ratio (N/P) as key functional traits can reflect plant survival strategies and predict ecosystem productivity responses to environmental changes. Previous research on leaf nutrient traits has primarily focused on the species level with limited spatial scale, making it challenging to quantify the variability and influencing factors of forest leaf nutrient traits on a macro scale. This study, based on field surveys and literature collected from 2005 to 2020 on 384 planted forests and 541 natural forests in China, investigates the differences in leaf nutrient traits between forest types (planted forests, natural forests) and their driving factors. Results show that leaf nutrient traits (leaf nitrogen content (LN), leaf phosphorus content (LP), and leaf N/P ratio) of planted forests are significantly higher than those of natural forests (P< 0.05). The impact of climatic and soil factors on the variability of leaf nutrient traits in planted forests is greater than that in natural forests. With increasing forest age, natural forests significantly increase in leaf nitrogen and phosphorus content, with a significant decrease in N/P ratio (P< 0.05). Climatic factors are key environmental factors dominating the spatial variability of leaf nutrient traits. They not only directly affect leaf nutrient traits of planted and natural forest communities but also indirectly through regulation of soil nutrients and stand factors, with their direct effects being more significant than their indirect effects.

Predicting the current fishable habitat distribution of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) and its shift in the future under climate change in the Southern Ocean.

Global warming continues to exert unprecedented impacts on marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) are proven powerful in predicting habitat distribution for marine demersal species under climate change impacts. The Antarctic toothfish, Dissostichus mawsoni (Norman 1937), an ecologically and commercially significant species, is endemic to the Southern Ocean. Utilizing occurrence records and environmental data, we developed an ensemble model that integrates various modelling techniques. This model characterizes species-environment relationships and predicts current and future fishable habitats of D. mawsoni under four climate change scenarios. Ice thickness, depth and mean water temperature were the top three important factors in affecting the distribution of D. mawsoni. The ensemble prediction suggests an overall expansion of fishable habitats, potentially due to the limited occurrence records from fishery-dependent surveys. Future projections indicate varying degrees of fishable habitat loss in large areas of the Amery Ice Shelf's eastern and western portions. Suitable fishable habitats, including the spawning grounds in the seamounts around the northern Ross Sea and the coastal waters of the Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea, were persistent under present and future environmental conditions, highlighting the importance to protect these climate refugia from anthropogenic disturbance. Though data deficiency existed in this study, our predictions can provide valuable information for designing climate-adaptive development and conservation strategies in maintaining the sustainability of this species.

High ambient temperature impact on the pattern of emergency-room visits due to renal colic in the Middle East.

Urolithiasis has a seasonal pattern, with an established increase in incidence during the summer months. This study aims to assess the impact of high ambient temperatures on emergency room (ER) visits related to renal colic (RC) in a Middle Eastern country over the past decade. Population data were extracted using the MDClone Big Data platform. We recorded demographic and clinical data on all RC-associated ER visits from January 2012 to April 2023 and calculated the heat index (HI) that combines daily average coastal plane temperatures and humidity percentages. There was a total of 12,770 ER visits (median age 48 years, 9,236 (72%) males). The number of visits increased during the hottest months (July-October), with the highest numbers recorded during August. The number of visits remained stable throughout the study. We identified a linear association between humidity and the incidence of ER visits (p = 0.002), and a non-linear association between ambient temperature (p < 0.0001) and HI (p < 0.0001). There was a direct relationship between high temperatures and ER visits on the same day (risk ratio [RR]: 1.75, p = 0.036), with a 2-day lag (RR: 1.123, p = 0.024). In Conclusion, there is a significant relationship between temperature, humidity, HI, and the number of ER visits due to RC. Adjusted resource allocation and healthcare workforce availability are essential for managing additional cases during heat waves. Clinical implications: Increased demand is expected during heatwaves and within a 2-day lag, emphasizing the importance of proactive strategies to effectively manage RC patients.

Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios.

Spatial simulation and projection of ecosystem services value (ESV) changes caused by urban growth are important for sustainable development in arid regions. We developed a new model of cellular automata based grasshopper optimization algorithm (named GOA-CA) for simulating urban growth patterns and assessing the impacts of urban growth on ESV changes under climate change scenarios. The results show that GOA-CA yielded overall accuracy exceeding 98%, and FOM for 2010 and 2020 were 43.2% and 38.1%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of the model. The prairie lost the highest economic ESVs (192 million USD) and the coniferous yielded the largest economic ESV increase (292 million USD) during 2000-2020. Using climate change scenarios as urban future land use demands, we projected three scenarios of the urban growth of Urumqi for 2050 and their impacts on ESV. Our model can be easily applied to simulating urban development, analyzing its impact on ESV and projecting future scenarios in global arid regions.

The urban political ecology of antimicrobial resistance: A critical lens on integrative governance.

The objective of this paper is to integrate Urban Political Ecology (UPE) as a theory for identifying under-exposed urban dimensions of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). A UPE lens allows us to conceptualize urbanization as a ubiquitous socio-ecological process and an interpretive frame that could inform AMR governance strategies across related contexts by: a) situating AMR risks in relation to urbanization processes shaping social and political co-determinants of such systemic threats as climate change; b) aligning UPE scholarship with One Health (OH) approaches that address AMR to reveal the under-exposed link of AMR to environmental threats and broader structural dimensions that influence these threats; and c) identifying shared AMR and environmental governance pathways that inform the rationale for more equitable governance arrangements. We delineate a context in which the speed and scale of human activity in the larger context of urbanization, driven by global market integration strategies, impacts human-animal-environmental health threats such as AMR. We demonstrate how UPE scholarship can be leveraged to offer theoretical depth to approaches considering the interdependencies of AMR and climate change threats. We then propose a strategic approach focused on identifying shared governance pathways and intersectoral accountability frameworks to address upstream structural drivers of AM-Environmental threats. The co-benefits of a UPE-informed framework to human-animal-environmental health that leverages enabling policy environments to foster a more collaborative, equitable and sustainable approach to address systemic global health threats are clarified. Just as the concept of "health in all policies" emphasized taking health implications into account in all public policy development, the integration of UPE in AMR governance arrangements would emphasize the need to take other sectors into account through an intersectoral whole-of-government approach that fosters shared AMR - climate change governance pathways.

Existing Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Drought and Health Research.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Drought is one of the most far-reaching natural disasters, yet drought and health research is sparse. This may be attributed to the challenge of quantifying drought exposure, something complicated by multiple drought indices without any designed for health research. The purpose of this general review is to evaluate current drought and health literature and highlight challenges or scientific considerations when performing drought exposure and health assessments. RECENT FINDINGS: The literature revealed a small, but growing, number of drought and health studies primarily emphasizing Australian, western European, and US populations. The selection of drought indices and definitions of drought are inconsistent. Rural and agricultural populations have been identified as vulnerable cohorts, particularly for mental health outcomes. Using relevant examples, we discuss the importance of characterizing drought and explore why health outcomes, populations of interest, and compound environmental hazards are crucial considerations for drought and health assessments. As climate and health research is prioritized, we propose guidance for investigators performing drought-focused analyses.

Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants.

Freshwaters are highly threatened ecosystems that are vulnerable to chemical pollution and climate change. Freshwater taxa vary in their sensitivity to chemicals and changes in species composition can potentially affect the sensitivity of assemblages to chemical exposure. Here we explore the potential consequences of future climate change on the composition and sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors using the UK as a case study. Macroinvertebrate assemblages under end of century (2080-2100) and baseline (1980-2000) climate conditions were predicted for 608 UK sites for four climate scenarios corresponding to mean temperature changes of 1.28 to 3.78°C. Freshwater macroinvertebrate toxicity data were collated for 19 chemicals and the hierarchical species sensitivity distribution model was used to predict the sensitivity of untested taxa using relatedness within a Bayesian approach. All four future climate scenarios shifted assemblage compositions, increasing the prevalence of Mollusca, Crustacea and Oligochaeta species, and the insect taxa of Odonata, Chironomidae, and Baetidae species. Contrastingly, decreases were projected for Plecoptera, Ephemeroptera (except for Baetidae) and Coleoptera species. Shifts in taxonomic composition were associated with changes in the percentage of species at risk from chemical exposure. For the 3.78°C climate scenario, 76% of all assemblages became more sensitive to chemicals and for 18 of the 19 chemicals, the percentage of species at risk increased. Climate warming-induced increases in sensitivity were greatest for assemblages exposed to metals and were dependent on baseline assemblage composition, which varied spatially. Climate warming is predicted to result in changes in the use, environmental exposure and toxicity of chemicals. Here we show that, even in the absence of these climate-chemical interactions, shifts in species composition due to climate warming will increase chemical risk and that the impact of chemical pollution on freshwater macroinvertebrate biodiversity may double or quadruple by the end of the 21st century.

UK national survey on surgical gowning for tonsillectomy.

OBJECTIVE: Tonsillectomy is a common procedure performed nationally. The personal protective equipment and surgical gowning practices used during this procedure vary widely. We compiled a survey of ENT specialists to gain a national opinion about gowning in tonsillectomy with the aim of determining whether we could make it more environmentally friendly whilst maintaining the highest safety standards. METHOD: We developed a nine-question survey that was piloted prior to final implementation. The questionnaire was sent to senior registrars and consultant otolaryngologists in the UK. RESULTS: The survey was completed by a total of 63 ENT specialists. It was found that 82.54 per cent of clinicians would consider wearing a reusable gown that would be sterilised between each procedure. CONCLUSION: Our survey suggests most ENT clinicians would consider using a more environmentally friendly surgical gown and some may even consider wearing no gown at all, although many are understandably concerned about the transmission of infection or blood splatter.

Study loss of vegetative cover and increased land surface temperature through remote sensing strategies under the inter-annual climate variability in Jinhua-Quzhou basin, China.

The Jinhua-Quzhou basin in China is one of the most susceptible areas to drought. Due to the loss of vegetation and great fluctuations in rainfall and surface temperature, global warming occurs. Timely, accurate, and effective drought monitoring is crucial for protecting local vegetation and determining which vegetation is most vulnerable to increased LST during the period 1982-2019. It assumes a strong correlation between loss of vegetation cover, changes in monsoon climate, drought, and increases in land surface temperature (LST). Due to significantly increased in LST, low precipitation and vegetation cover, NDVI, TVDI, VCI, and NAP are useful in characterizing drought mitigation strategies. The temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation condition index (VCI), and monthly precipitation anomaly percentage (NAP) can be helped to characterize drought reduction strategies. Monthly NDVI, NAP, VCI, TVDI, normalized vegetation supply water index (NVSWI), temperature condition index (TCI), vegetation health index (VHI), and heat map analysis indicate that the Jinhua-Quzhou basin experienced drought during 1984, 1993, 2000, and 2011. Seasonal SR, WVP, WS, NDVI, VCI, and NAP charts confirm that the Jinhua-Quzhou basin was affected by severe drought in 1984, which continued and led to severe droughts in 1993, 2000, and 2011. Regression analysis showed a significant positive correlation between NDVI, TVDI, VCI, and NAP values, while NVSWI, TVDI, and VHI showed positive signs of good drought monitoring strategies. The research results confirm the correlation between loss of vegetation cover and LST, which is one of the causes of global warming. The distribution of drought changed a trend indicating that compared with the Jinhua region; the Quzhou region has more droughts. The changing trend of drought has characteristics from 1982 to 2019, and there are significant differences in drought changing trends between different Jinhua-Quzhou basin areas. Overall, from 1982 to 2019, the frequency of drought showed a downward trend. We believe that these results will provide useful tools for drought management plans and play a relevant role in mitigating the effects of drought and protecting humanity from climate hazards.

Celebrating Australian nurses who are pioneering the response to climate change: a compilation of case studies.

BACKGROUND: Nurses, the largest healthcare workforce, are well placed to provide leadership in initiatives that promote planetary health. Yet, few practical examples of nurse leadership in the health sector's response to climate change are evident in the scholarly literature. AIM: The aim of this discussion paper is to profile Australian nurses who are leading initiatives designed to champion planetary health and promote sustainable practice. METHODS: The paper presents a series of case studies derived from interviews conducted in October and November 2023. FINDINGS: The nurses' experiences and insights, along with the challenges they have encountered, are presented as evidence of Kouzes and Posner's five practices of exemplary leadership. CONCLUSION: The case studies demonstrate that appointment of more nurses with climate and sustainability expertise will accelerate the implementation of responsive strategies that target waste management, emissions reduction and climate resilience across healthcare organisations.

Experimental research in environmentally induced hyperthermic older persons: A systematic quantitative literature review mapping the available evidence.

The heat-related health burden is expected to persist and worsen in the coming years due to an aging global population and climate change. Defining the breadth and depth of our understanding of age-related changes in thermoregulation can identify underlying causes and strategies to protect vulnerable individuals from heat. We conducted the first systematic quantitative literature review to provide context to the historical experimental research of healthy older adults - compared to younger adults or unhealthy age matched cases - during exogenous heat strain, focusing on factors that influence thermoregulatory function (e.g. co-morbidities). We identified 4,455 articles, with 147 meeting eligibility criteria. Most studies were conducted in the US (39%), Canada (29%), or Japan (12%), with 71% of the 3,411 participants being male. About 71% of the studies compared younger and older adults, while 34% compared two groups of older adults with and without factors influencing thermoregulation. Key factors included age combined with another factor (23%), underlying biological mechanisms (18%), age independently (15%), influencing health conditions (15%), adaptation potential (12%), environmental conditions (9%), and therapeutic/pharmacological interventions (7%). Our results suggest that controlled experimental research should focus on the age-related changes in thermoregulation in the very old, females, those with overlooked chronic heat-sensitive health conditions (e.g. pulmonary, renal, mental disorders), the impact of multimorbidity, prolonged and cumulative effects of extreme heat, evidence-based policy of control measures (e.g. personal cooling strategies), pharmaceutical interactions, and interventions stimulating protective physiological adaptation. These controlled studies will inform the directions and use of limited resources in ecologically valid fieldwork studies.

Spatiotemporal changes in future precipitation of Afghanistan for shared socioeconomic pathways.

Global warming induces spatially heterogeneous changes in precipitation patterns, highlighting the need to assess these changes at regional scales. This assessment is particularly critical for Afghanistan, where agriculture serves as the primary livelihood for the population. New global climate model (GCM) simulations have recently been released for the recently established shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This requires evaluating projected precipitation changes under these new scenarios and subsequent policy updates. This research employed six GCMs from the CMIP6 to project spatial and temporal precipitation changes across Afghanistan under all SSPs, including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The employed GCMs were bias-corrected using the Global Precipitation Climatological Center's (GPCC) monthly gridded precipitation data with a 1.0° spatial resolution. Subsequently, the climate change factor was calculated to assess precipitation changes for both the near future (2020-2059) and the distant future (2060-2099). The bias-corrected projections' multi-model ensemble (MME) revealed increased precipitation across most of Afghanistan for SSPs with higher emissions scenarios. The bias-corrected simulations showed a substantial increase in summer precipitation of around 50%, projected under SSP1-1.9 in the southwestern region, while a decline of over 50% is projected in the northwestern region until 2100. The annual precipitation in the northwest region was projected to increase up to 15% for SSP1-2.6. SSP2-4.5 showed a projected annual precipitation increase of around 20% in the southwestern and certain eastern regions in the far future. Furthermore, a substantial rise of approximately 50% in summer precipitation under SSP3-7.0 is expected in the central and western regions in the far future. However, it is crucial to note that the projected changes exhibit considerable uncertainty among different GCMs.